Politics Case Studies

Paper 1: UK Politics

Democracy & Participation:

• Parliament given Sovereignty by the Supreme Court over Brexit in 2019 – they must vote on all deals.
• ‘Cancel Article 50’ petition got over 6 million signatures.
• Brexit Referendum – 2016. 48.1% to 51.9%/. 72% turnout.
• AV Referendum – 2011. Firm no (67%). 42% turnout.
• 1998 Human Rights Act under Blair (incorporated into law from EU).
• Voter Turnout: 1997 – 71%, 2001 – 59%, 2005 – 61%, 2010 – 65%, 2015 – 66%, 2017 – 68%.
• 2009 Parliament expenses scandal.
• 2017 Westminster Sexual Misconduct scandal (Michael Fallon).
• Votes for 16 – 75% of 16 and 17 year olds voted – the highest turnout by age category.
• NEU (National Education Union) – largest teachers union in Europe, operate as a Sectional Pressure Group.
• Extinction Rebellion 2019 – Pressure Group work. Boris Johnson argues that the police aren’t doing enough to prevent them. Promotional Pressure Group.
• Think Tanks – Adam Smith Institute (favoured by Thatcher), Centre for Social Justice (used in 2005 to reduce poverty in the UK), Demos – used by Blair in 1997.
• In 2014, Parliament passed the Transparency of Lobbying, Non-Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act, requiring statutory registration of professional lobbyists.
• In June 2015 the Chartered Institute of Public Relations (CIPR) launched the UK Lobbying Register.

Political Parties:

• Theresa May vote of no confidence 2018 (which she narrowly won).
• Tony Blair 1997 majority with 418 seats (landslide).
• UKIP gaining 3.9 million votes in 2015 – rise of the Right-Wing groups in response to centralised British politics.
• Cameron “fighting Labour for the centre ground”.
• Thatcher “you would rather the poor be poorer, than the rich be richer”.
• Conservative Party resignations and firings under Johnson 2019 – removing the whip from 20 MPs over Brexit (including Hammond and Clark – two well established and leading conservative figures).
• 2000 – Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Acts controls the issue of Party Spending and Finance.
• Conservative Factions – One Nation (Tory Reform Group), The Bruges Group (pro Brexit), Thatcherite.
• Labour Factions – Blue Labour (socially conservative), Momentum (pro Corbyn), Labour First (right wing, but claims to support the ‘moderate’ Labour stance)
• Liberal Democrat Factions – Orange Book (want liberal economic attitudes).
• UKIP Factions – the emergence of the Brexit Party under Farage.

Electoral Systems:

• Northern Ireland government shutdown. From 2017 it’s been suspended due to Single Transferable Vote.
• “The number of MPs a party has in Westminster rarely reflects the number of votes the party's candidates received.” Electoral Reform Society.
• 2015 – Belfast South – this was won with only 24.5% of the vote.
• In 2005, only 1/3 of all Constituencies were actually won with more than 50% of the vote.
• In 2017, the “safest seats” were for Labour and in Liverpool (X3 seats.
• AMS allows for more local representation. in the Glasgow region in 2011, 3 Labour, 2 SNP, 1 Conservative and 1 Green MSP were elected.
• Results under different systems: Conservatives would have won under FPTP, AV and AMS but would not have had a majority in any. Labour would have won under STV, but without a majority.
• Electoral Systems by country: England – FPTP, Scotland – AMS, Wales – AMS, Northern Ireland – STV.
• Referendums – 10 since 1997. Turnouts range from 34% to 85%.
• Electoral Reform Society – campaigning for move away from FPTP to a Proportional Representative system.

Voting Behaviour and the Media:

• 2019 Local elections – a growth from middle income earners voting for the Liberal Democrats.
• 2017. Class ABC1 voted 44% Conservative compared to 40% Labour.
• 2017. Women vote evenly across Labour and Conservative. Men vote 45% to 39% Conservative.
• Most Conservative newspapers. Express, Mail, Telegraph (all above 75% Conservative voters).
• Late 1990s – Class Dealignment becomes a major issue.
• Ethnicity – more likely to vote Liberal or Labour. But now being mitigated by class and income as a driving factor
• Age – For every 10 years you age, your chance of voting Conservative increases by 9%.
• Gender – fluctuates. Typically women voted Labour / Liberal with men voting conservative. Thatcher gained a lot of female voters. Now being mitigated by impact of employment and class.
• Employment Status – Labour wins with full-time students or those new to work. Conservative leads with retirees. Both parties share a roughly equal share of full-time workers.
• Class – typically AB1 voters turn towards conservative with strong links to their employment status and income. C1, C2 and D typically vote Labour with connections to benefits and support, however Thatcher won a lot of support from this group with her 1979 election promises.
• Education – ties in with class and income. Higher levels of education on their own don’t show much trend, but with class and income there is more connection.
• Opinion polls – have not predicted successfully the outcome of 2015 election, 2017 election or 2016 EU referendum.